摘要：

　　近年来，印太16国区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)的谈判在加快，以期早日签署该协定。然而，印度在参与了多年的谈判后，在2019年11月4日泰国曼谷举行的第三次RCEP领导人会议的最后关头还是选择不签署RCEP，这使得RCEP的签订再次延期。印度之所以选择暂不加入，虽然有经济、体制、战略、心态等方面的具体原因，但“再博弈”的心态也十分明显。客观地看，RCEP签署后，将通过削减关税与非关税壁垒建立区域统一市场，这对竞争力相对较弱的印度经济会造成短暂的冲击，从而招致国内利益集团的反对。从根本上看，印度为追求大国目标而采取实用主义经济外交，这决定了它政策的“摇摆”性。目前，WTO谈判受阻、逆全球化盛行，需要加强区域经济一体化，相互开放市场，加强经贸合 作，以共同应对挑战，促进共同发展。RCEP 作为拥有世界一半人口、三分之一生产总值的巨大市场，对参与国家乃至全球经济发展都将产生重大影响。印度不加入RCEP，不仅会影响其融入世界、促进经济发展、改善民生的目标，而且还会影响其政治、战略等目标的实现。

　　英文摘要（Abstract）：

　　In recent years, the sixteen countries of Indo-Pacific region have accelerated negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with a view to signing the agreement at an early date. But after years of negotiations, RCEP faces delay as India pushes back at the final moment of the third RCEP summit in Bangkok, Thailand on November 4, 2019. Although there were specific reasons for not joining in for the time being, such as economy, system, strategy, mentality and so on, among these, India’s mentality of “re-gaming” was obvious. Objectively, after the signing of the RCEP, a regional unified market will be established by reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, which will have a short-term impact on the relatively weak Indian economy and cause opposition from its domestic interest groups. Fundamentally, India has adopted pragmatic economic diplomacy in pursuit of the goal of a great power, which determines the “swing” and constant game of its policies. At present, due to the obstruction of WTO negotiations and the prevalence of anti-globalization, it is necessary to strengthen regional economic integration, open markets to each other, and enhance economic and trade cooperation in order to jointly meet challenges and promote common development. As a huge market with half of the world’s population and one-third of world GDP, the RCEP will have a significant impact on the economic development of participating countries and even the world. India’s failure to join the RCEP will not only affect its goal of integrating into the world, promoting economic development and improving people’s livelihood, but also its political and strategic demands. Above all, from our perspective, there is a great possibility for India to join the RCEP in the future.

　　作者简介：陈利君(1967～)，云南省社会科学院研究员、云南省印度洋研究会副会长，主要研究领域：南亚问题、中国—南亚关系;

　　张婷(1996～)，云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心硕士研究生;

　　王凌云(1997～)，云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心硕士研究生。

　　期刊：南亚东南亚研究

　　期号：2020.4

　　关键词：印度;RCEP;印太战略;区域经济一体化

　　Key Words: India, RCEP, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Regional Economic Integration

　　项目基金：本文为2018年国家社科基金重点项目“印日自由走廊对我国的影响及对策研究(项目批准号：18AGJ009)”的阶段性研究成果。

　　附件：《印度在RCEP中的博弈及其加入前景分析》